The Comeback America Initiative

David Walker, former US Comptroller General, is very active warning the US citizenry of the dangers of rising budget deficits. His sponsored Sovereign Fiscal Responsibility Index (SFRI) is a new fiscal indicator that incorporates a wide range of fiscal, economic and political factors into ranking a country's fiscal responsibility and sustainability. 

A full description of the index and findings is linked here.

The SFRI found that the most fiscally responsible countries are not the ones one would generally expect, including Australia and New Zealand as the front runners. Four of the top 10 in this index are emerging markets. Not surprisingly, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain and Japan are ranked near the bottom of the list.

The United States is ranked number 28 out of the 34 countries analyzed. Assuming no reforms are made, the study found that the United States will hit its debt ceiling in 2027 - 16 years from now. However, the U.S. is set to enter the fiscal danger zone in two to three years and a debt crisis could come suddenly thereafter. 

Importantly, when the data is re-analyzed, inserting the proposals from President Obama's National Fiscal Responsibility and Reform Commission, the U.S. moved up 20 spots to number eight.

The SFRI is the result of a Master's Thesis project completed by a team of Stanford University graduate students under the guidance of the Hon. David M. Walker, the former Comptroller General of the United States.

That glitter of silver

Since a child, I have had an unending interest in gold and silver. Most likely, it was influenced by growing up in the Washoe Valley in Nevada. We were just a short drive from Virginia City, the location of the Comstock Lode. 

The Lode was a huge silver and gold find with the great extracted wealth becoming the basis of the building of San Francisco as well as funding the Union in the last months of the Civil War. (Nevada entered the USA in 1864 as the "battle-born" state).  Silver as an investment, instead of just an adornment, has proven an excellent choice for appreciation (more than other alternatives) in the past decade. 

And with less physical silver available for purchase then gold, many analysts see even much more price appreciation ahead in this decade of "quantitative easing" and weakening the US dollar.

These two short video's below (about 6 minutes each) give a quick tour of how the mineral silver is discovered, mined, assayed and refined to end products such as jewelry and coins.

If you have interest to further explore silver as an investment alternative, check out this short podcast, or purchase this excellent book by David Morgan.

American Citizen Support for Military Actions

Gallop recently released a historical polling summary of US citizen approval for various military actions looking back 20 years.

Obviously, the ongoing actions in Libya are on the low end of historical support. An extract of Gallop's analysis of implications is below:

Americans are more likely to favor than oppose the current military action against Libya, though they favor it to a lesser extent than prior U.S. military campaigns. The poll did not ask Americans' specific reasons for approving or disapproving of the efforts against Libya, so the reasons for their subdued support are not clear.

There is a lack of a significant Republican-Democratic difference that could be the net result of Republicans' inclination to support military action and Democrats' inclination to support the Obama administration's policies. Gallup found similar dynamics at play during the Vietnam and Korean Wars.

In the past, the public's views on military actions have changed in response to the progress or lack of progress of those ventures. Usually, the longer the United States is involved in a military operation, such as the recent war in Iraq, the more support drops.

Letting Data Change Your Mindset

Talking at the US State Department in 2009, Hans Rosling uses his fascinating data-bubble software to burst myths about the developing world. Interesting new analysis on China and the post-bailout world, mixed with classic data shows.

What 7 Billion People Really Means

National Geographic has done two really excellent short videos focusing on the population growth of the human race.

What does 7 billion people encompass...

And based on the demographics, what is a typical human's characteristics...

Where Good Ideas Come From

Below is a fantastic short (4 minute) video summarizing Steven Johnson's book on the natural history of innovation.

If you have further interest, you can view the TED lecture by Steven from later last year.

What does Texas have in Common with Russia?

The weekly news magazine The Economist published a very thoughtful map in a recent edition. As you will note below, it depicts each state of the USA union with the name of a comparable country of the same Gross Domestic Product (GDP). So, we have California twinned with Italy, Texas with Russia, Ohio with Belgium, and Michigan with Taiwan.

Of course, to have a better comparison of wealth, one needs to also consider the population of these "states". So, if we look at California (pop 37 million) with Italy (pop 58 million), we note a much higher "per capita" income.

This is a great illustration that despite the rough economic times of the past few years, high unemployment, the housing and banking bust - that the United States is still a powerhouse in global economic terms.

Consumer Expenses in America

I ran across this interesting graph today, based on data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics for 2009.  Based on this, an average American family (2 adults and a partial child) has an income of about $63,000 before taxes (although a median family income is probably closer to $40,000).  For some reason, it does not include income tax (although social security is a large part - 93% - of the pension/insurance portion), but I have calculated that from IRS tables.

When we consider IRS income tax at about 12% on this level of income (or $8,600), then this increases total cost to about $57,000 (with about $6,000 left for potential savings or emergency expenses).  Of course, built into all the other numbers are sales taxes, property tax, etc.  If you also pay state and local tax, you are close to break-even.

And savings? 

From this come the following expenses (graphically displayed below): click to enlarge

Previous graphics from 2008, showed more detailed breakouts. Very interesting data, such as the average family spent four times as much on alcoholic beverages than reading material (and almost 3x as much on tobacco).

Education expense comes in about $950, about $400 above the categories of personal care products or alcohol.

Of course, these are all averages - therefore they do not correspond to anyone you or I have actually ever met. And, of course, that begs the question - what about that 50% of families below the median of $40,000 a year?